Page 5 of 5 FirstFirst 12345
Results 41 to 45 of 45

Thread: Wanna check out the coast.......

  1. #41
    Join Date
    Jun 2011
    Location
    Morgan Hill, CA
    Posts
    126

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Jeff F View Post
    Flows on the main Eel are predicted to be 9800cfs on Saturday. That will not be fishable, clarity-wise. The highest flows I've ever seen on that river with decent clarity is around 6500cfs. And that was marginal.

    Here's the link to predicted flows. Very helpful.....

    https://www.cnrfc.noaa.gov/graphicalRVF.php?id=SCOC1

    ~Jeff
    I do appreciate the feedback guys. I am still new to this guesstimating ideal flows on this river. My current method is tracking the flows on Dreamflows. Then guesstimating with current drop rates where the river might be by X date. The math currently pencils out to flows I've fished prior. (My last trip on the S.F. Miranda gauge was at 1,300cfs and conditions were basically perfect nice green but just a little milky). That math obviously assumes the river continues to drop....

    So, with this next rain event not looking to be too big of a storm, I am hoping she continues to clear. It may very well turn out to be wishful thinking.

    Any other tips on this part of the "game" are appreciated.

  2. #42
    Join Date
    Dec 2010
    Location
    Garden Valley
    Posts
    804

    Default

    Just a nitpick as far as calculating flows a few days out, as that is pretty tricky unless you have a very intimate knowledge of that specific river basin. Even with years of watching flow patterns and weather patterns it’s still easy to be off by a fair bit if you are starting your calculations before or near the peak before it starts to fall. The rivers will tend to drop very fast at the peak flows, but then tend to graduate to slower and slower rates of drop in flow rates. This of course fails to address many variables in the equation, though typically if you recalibrate your estimates after a few days of falling levels you can be a lot more accurate... unless more precipitation comes into play, as it often does. So far March is looking tough for those of us with a long drive to get to the north coast.
    Good luck, but I too would expect the main Eel and most of the south fork to be better suited for bait fishing this weekend.
    JB

    P.S. the link that Jeff posted (which is probably in my top 3 site hit count) is a great resource, but you should be aware that it’s predictions can be misleading under certain circumstances. Two big things to know are that first off they are not so accurate at predicting the peak flows (but much better at mapping falling levels), secondly the “predictions” they issue are actually predictions of the most likely of all possible flow scenarios. While that sounds similar, it is not what a lot of people assume when they see the word “prediction”. The potential flow scenarios during major storm fronts, for example, are so numerous that even the “most likely” scenario may only have a 10% chance of playing out as predicted.
    Last edited by JasonB; 03-07-2018 at 07:16 PM.
    "Lord help me to be the person my dog thinks I am"
    - unknown

  3. #43
    Join Date
    Jun 2011
    Location
    Morgan Hill, CA
    Posts
    126

    Default

    Oh Well! I was hoping we weren't going to get hit too hard. I won't complain though. We need the rain. Hopefully, the plans for Pyramid next weekend don't get scrubbed.

    Thanks for the input JB. That light bulb finally went off for me yesterday, figuring out the rate of the drop slows. I also discovered the fantasy flow tab on the Dreamflows site... that will be helpful in the future.

    Thanks again for chiming in. If any of you get out, best of luck to you.

  4. #44
    Join Date
    Jun 2007
    Location
    granite bay
    Posts
    164

    Default

    Predicting river color with flows is like predicting an earthquake. There are so many factors that can influence this. I understand that the drive is quite long, but if you truly want to know whats up, you gotta pretty much have to go to see for yourself. Can't tell you how many times we thought it was going to be perfect and it being less than desirable. With that said, there been times when we arrived and it is just falling into shape into perfection. A dropping clearing river at the right flows are a small window of opportunity these days. I know most here are fly fishing purists but having an open mind and bringing along conventional gear when its still a little dirty will at least it gets you fishing. Pick a river, and get to know it intimately. Stay with it for a few years, then the guessing game isn't as hard. Good luck, cause we all know we need it!

  5. #45
    Join Date
    Feb 2005
    Location
    San Diego
    Posts
    1,503

    Default

    Here's a link to Kenny Priest's latest "Fishing the North Coast" report. The Eureka Times-Standard carries
    his report, but want you to subscribe.
    http://www.myoutdoorbuddy.com/articl...-abundance.php

    Best,
    Larry S
    Sun Diego

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  
30 Day Money Back Guarantee